Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb2b…1e44 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,465 (+42%) realized −$56 · open +$1,521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1,873
culture 15% −$449
crypto 12% −$8
sports 8% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +25.1% +13.2% 83% 70% -2.8%
≤30d 33 +16.7% +5.6% 76% 67% -18.0%
≤90d 33 +16.7% +5.6% 76% 67% -18.0%
all 33 +16.7% +5.6% 76% 67% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 67% -18.0%
10% -4.5% 52% -25.9%
15% -13.7% 45% -33.0%
20% -22.2% 36% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$36 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4,239
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$1,521
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage13d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $500 $3,109 +$2,609 (+522%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $500 $281 −$219 (-44%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $502 $108 −$393 (-78%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 48¢ 46¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 17¢ 14¢ $107 $84 −$24 (-22%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $500 $81 −$419 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $83 +$122 +147%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $82 −$66 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$13 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 17¢ $110 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 48¢ $112 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 3¢ $0 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $1 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 67¢ $204 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $82 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $57 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,239.19 · official $4,239.19 (match) · 82 history records