Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CB 0xcb28…3750 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,784 (-19%) realized −$5,786 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%31W / 41L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,177
7 days−$1,177
14 days−$1,177
30 days−$1,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$3,868
other 8% −$1,713
sports 5% −$68
politics 1% −$29
world 1% −$65
economics 1% −$129
finance 1% −$125
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 44% -20.1%
≤30d 39 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 39 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 44% -20.1%
all 72 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 38% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -27.5%
10% -25.8% 31% -34.4%
15% -33.0% 26% -40.7%
20% -39.5% 21% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$300 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$5,786
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses31 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage148d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 29¢ 30¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$55 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $270 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $211 +$110 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $195 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $477 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $118 +$43 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $116 +$44 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $249 −$86 -35%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $536 +$29 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,250 −$738 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $900 +$168 +19%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $2,500 +$1,144 +46%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $131 +$48 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $73 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $147 +$108 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$237 +275%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $41 −$2 -5%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$257 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $146 +$95 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$79 +302%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 −$36 -7%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $2,483 −$1,745 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $500 −$475 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $1,000 +$257 +26%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $1,120 +$228 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 06 $1,750 +$174 +10%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 06 $241 +$183 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 06 $500 +$102 +20%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 06 $400 +$338 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 06 $1,100 +$1,362 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $114 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $94 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $49 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $46 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $36 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $43 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $57 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $56 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $70 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.52 · official $60.03 · 281 history records