Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb21…3f88 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$63 (+7%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%51W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$54
14 days+$100
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$27
other 29% −$14
sports 14% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +37.5% +24.4% 80% 80% +12.4%
≤30d 63 +32.3% +19.7% 57% 52% +1.3%
≤90d 88 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 52% -4.6%
all 88 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 52% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 52% -4.6%
10% -5.0% 41% -13.7%
15% -14.2% 30% -22.1%
20% -22.6% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses51 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage40d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $14 +$23 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$20 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$19 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$11 +42%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +81%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $14 +$7 +48%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $12 +$12 +102%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $11 +$6 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $13 +$13 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $34 +$9 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$34 +235%
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5) Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$8 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$10 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$12 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$6 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$2 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $9 +$7 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $12 +$28 +233%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$23 +1156%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$23 +1124%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 31 $7 −$7 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $27 +$14 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $9 +$18 +191%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 −$3 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 59¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 21¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 13¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $23 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $23 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $15 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 65¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $13 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 6d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) SELL Chicago Sky 100¢ $8 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 67¢ $14 6d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 6d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Chicago Sky 61¢ $5 6d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $17 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 66¢ $11 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $15 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $13 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records