Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb1f…6e8b crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,356 (-7%) realized −$1,356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%83W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 58% -15.7%
≤30d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 58% -15.7%
≤90d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 58% -15.7%
all 147 -6.8% -15.6% 56% 46% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 46% -15.7%
10% -23.7% 36% -23.8%
15% -31.1% 28% -31.1%
20% -37.8% 19% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$78 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses83 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage194d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $37 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$41 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$31 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 10 $201 −$198 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 07 $254 −$190 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 07 $118 +$75 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 07 $178 +$55 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 07 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 02 $478 −$232 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 02 $245 +$44 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 02 $300 −$205 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 02 $361 −$361 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 02 $263 +$98 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 02 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 02 $200 −$184 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 02 $200 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 02 $434 −$24 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 02 $150 −$25 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 02 $424 +$49 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 02 $210 +$105 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 02 $200 +$126 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 02 $100 +$80 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 02 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 02 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 02 $250 +$66 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 02 $350 +$88 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 02 $140 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 02 $97 +$43 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 02 $83 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 02 $157 −$7 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jan 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 31 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 31 $40 −$28 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $58 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $24 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records