Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcb19…e249 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$8
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 32 -14.4% -22.6% 78% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -14.4% -22.6% 78% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -30.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -36.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -43.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage92d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $828 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $818 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $818 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $817 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $287 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $293 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $337 −$37 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $348 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $138 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $395 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $781 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 22? Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 21? Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21? Mar 22 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20? Mar 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 19? Mar 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 13d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $318 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $349 16d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $383 24d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $434 24d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $818 27d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $816 32d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 35d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $168 35d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $293 36d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 41d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $291 41d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 41d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 42d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $347 46d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 47d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $99.35 (match) · 95 history records