Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb18…3a48 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$332 (+17%) realized +$333 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$307
14 days+$307
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$307
sports 6% +$23
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 71% +6.5%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 71% +6.5%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 71% +6.5%
all 18 +7.3% -2.9% 83% 78% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 78% +6.3%
10% -12.2% 44% -3.9%
15% -20.7% 11% -13.2%
20% -28.5% 11% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.97 per $1 lost it wins $17.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$333
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage115d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $703 +$130 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $402 +$74 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $211 +$26 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $171 +$40 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $136 +$14 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $109 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Mar 12 $12 −$12 -100%
New Orleans Privateers vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders Mar 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Grambling State Tigers Mar 10 $26 +$4 +14%
First Round Pool A: Colombia vs. Puerto Rico Mar 08 $10 +$3 +27%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 08 $10 +$1 +11%
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Netherlands Mar 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Merrimack College Warriors Mar 07 $10 +$3 +30%
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Australia Mar 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Utah vs. Flyers Mar 06 $10 +$8 +85%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $703 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $237 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $211 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $402 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $171 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $136 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 81¢ $109 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 109d
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal BUY Madison Keys 81¢ $12 111d
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Grambling State Tigers BUY Grambling State Tigers 88¢ $26 111d
New Orleans Privateers vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders BUY Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 78¢ $10 111d
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Merrimack College Warriors BUY Merrimack College Warriors 77¢ $10 114d
Mavericks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 90¢ $10 114d
First Round Pool A: Colombia vs. Puerto Rico BUY Puerto Rico 79¢ $10 115d
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Netherlands BUY Venezuela 81¢ $10 115d
Utah vs. Flyers SELL Utah 100¢ $18 115d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets SELL Blue Jackets 100¢ $19 115d
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Australia BUY Australia 86¢ $10 115d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $10 115d
Utah vs. Flyers BUY Utah 54¢ $10 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.36 · official $99.36 (match) · 41 history records