Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb18…f867 world 9 markets active 157d ago coverage 445d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$47,314 (+207%) realized +$47,314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +257% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +192% what you keep after slip
Net edge+192%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$2,545per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$47,347
sports 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+223.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 9 +257.1% +223.1% 67% 33% +177.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +223.1% 33% +177.3%
10% ← realistic here +192.2% 33% +150.8%
15% +164.0% 33% +126.6%
20% +138.1% 33% +104.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +257% · $-wt +206% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,046 vs −$320 · ×25.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×50.29 per $1 lost it wins $50.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47,314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage445d
Avg bet$2,545
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) Jan 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 19 $500 +$28 +6%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 19 $14,036 +$1,225 +9%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $6,125 +$34,997 +571%
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday? May 19 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25? Oct 25 $62 +$560 +903%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 25 $1,053 +$11,459 +1088%
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 26? Oct 25 $228 −$156 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) BUY OG 34¢ $34 156d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? SELL Yes 6¢ $240 364d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 5¢ $164 364d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 364d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? SELL Yes 7¢ $288 364d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 7¢ $300 364d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 364d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 364d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 65¢ $7,242 366d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $105 366d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 70¢ $3,254 366d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 366d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 63¢ $100 366d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,120 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $915 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,711 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $249 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $518 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $721 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $620 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $472 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 60¢ $154 366d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 366d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 49¢ $4,660 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records