Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb17…70cb crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-40%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$20
world 32% −$22
other 16% −$3
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 12% -56.8%
≤30d 16 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 12% -56.8%
≤90d 16 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 12% -56.8%
all 16 -51.1% -55.8% 25% 12% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 12% -56.8%
10% -60.0% 12% -60.9%
15% -63.9% 12% -64.7%
20% -67.4% 12% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No $0 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $6 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $6 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up $5 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $6 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL No $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY No $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.84 · official $20.84 (match) · 31 history records