Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb16…96b5 sports 1055 markets active 0h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,234 (-1%) realized −$11,333 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%645W / 409L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$4,259est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$3,099
14 days+$4,015
30 days+$4,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$16,095
crypto 1% −$425
other 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +12.1% +1.5% 86% 65% -5.5%
≤30d 172 +2.4% -7.3% 77% 55% -5.2%
≤90d 703 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 42% -11.6%
all 1054 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 45% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 45% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 33% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 24% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$732) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$322 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$1,992
Realized−$11,333
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses645 / 409
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4,259
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1054 / 1055
History coverage346d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1054 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 67¢ 70¢ $1,893 $1,992 +$99 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,026 +$886 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $828 +$200 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $3,714 −$2,891 -78%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $2,958 +$760 +26%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $3,314 +$241 +7%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $3,054 +$261 +8%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $3,424 +$628 +18%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $2,767 +$657 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $2,474 +$294 +12%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $2,285 +$190 +8%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $1,772 +$511 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $1,409 +$364 +26%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $1,232 +$177 +14%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $919 +$312 +34%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $721 +$199 +28%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $1,368 −$202 -15%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $4,346 −$2,621 -60%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $3,307 +$238 +7%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $2,659 +$645 +24%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $2,483 +$179 +7%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $2,468 +$712 +29%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $1,890 +$579 +31%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1,560 +$330 +21%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $1,211 +$349 +29%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $907 +$305 +34%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $837 +$71 +8%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $2,172 −$703 -32%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1,435 +$104 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $1,042 +$392 +38%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $910 +$133 +15%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $804 +$107 +13%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $2,126 −$1,324 -62%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1,940 +$161 +8%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $1,473 +$451 +31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $35 +$6 +17%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $1,332 +$176 +13%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1,111 +$221 +20%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,477 +$233 +16%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $1,113 +$358 +32%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1,022 +$97 +10%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $891 +$130 +15%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $805 +$87 +11%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $782 +$23 +3%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $653 +$129 +20%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $455 +$198 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $378 +$77 +20%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $302 +$74 +24%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $111 +$59 +53%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $429 −$425 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 67¢ $1,912 12m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $1,912 56m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 53¢ $1,026 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $1,028 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $828 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Susan Bandecchi 12¢ $822 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Susan Bandecchi 21¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 52¢ $3,714 2h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $3,718 22h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 79¢ $2,958 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka SELL Martyna Kubka 100¢ $3,554 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 93¢ $3,314 28h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $3,315 28h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 92¢ $3,054 29h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $4,052 45h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 84¢ $3,424 45h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $3,424 46h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 80¢ $2,767 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $2,768 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 89¢ $2,474 2d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 100¢ $2,475 2d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 92¢ $2,285 2d
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 100¢ $2,284 2d
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 77¢ $1,772 2d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $1,772 2d
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 79¢ $1,409 2d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 100¢ $1,409 2d
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 87¢ $1,232 2d
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 100¢ $1,232 2d
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 74¢ $919 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,991.94 · official $1,963.69 · 2789 history records