Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcb14…bd17 sports 756 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,003 (+1%) realized +$1,965 · open +$2,038
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%382W / 348L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$10,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,421
7 days+$4,893
14 days+$5,485
30 days+$6,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$10,323
politics 22% +$14,198
other 7% +$744
world 6% +$575
culture 3% −$1,433
crypto 2% −$722
tech 0% +$253
finance 0% +$42
economics 0% −$60
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 45% +44.7%
≤30d 51 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 45% +24.7%
≤90d 195 +1.2% -8.5% 51% 34% -2.7%
all 730 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 38% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 33% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$302 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$10,552
Realized+$1,965
Unrealized+$2,038
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses382 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions26
Markets (closed)730 / 756
History coverage322d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 24¢ 89¢ $1,324 $4,918 +$3,594 (+271%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,199 +$199 (+20%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $836 $865 +$29 (+3%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $622 $570 −$52 (-8%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 19¢ 22¢ $430 $499 +$70 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $350 $414 +$64 (+18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $236 $365 +$129 (+55%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 79¢ 67¢ $401 $342 −$59 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $303 $250 −$53 (-18%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Yes 54¢ 14¢ $912 $238 −$674 (-74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-16%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $168 $153 −$15 (-9%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $114 $113 −$2 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $76 $102 +$26 (+34%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $130 $90 −$40 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $35 $40 +$4 (+13%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 51¢ 1¢ $1,161 $20 −$1,141 (-98%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $9 $13 +$5 (+52%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,332 +$3,513 +264%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $286 −$8 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $392 +$148 +38%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $233 −$233 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $492 −$276 -56%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $1,027 +$673 +66%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 18 $104 −$21 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $2,612 +$536 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,431 +$815 +57%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 15 $91 −$11 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $485 +$233 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $180 +$72 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $333 +$16 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $469 +$71 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $36 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $122 +$25 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$469 +1521%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $339 −$78 -23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $2,643 +$159 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $55 +$45 +83%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $131 −$116 -89%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $164 −$164 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $121 +$79 +65%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $199 +$8 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 08 $93 +$47 +51%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $611 +$925 +151%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 07 $42 +$8 +19%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 07 $37 +$10 +27%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $65 +$35 +55%
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 03 $261 +$39 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $248 −$248 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $184 +$213 +116%
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $68 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $4 +$3 +94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $3 −$2 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $135 +$7 +5%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $183 +$7 +4%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $319 +$35 +11%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 25 $202 −$74 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $244 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $21 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $136 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $30 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $307 3h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 63¢ $272 4h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 4h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 4h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 5h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 65¢ $461 5h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 5h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $234 5h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 63¢ $27 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $180 5h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $194 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $200 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $233 2d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 56¢ $114 2d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $90 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $324 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 2d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,551.66 · official $10,583.27 (match) · 3300 history records