Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb11…0d5e world 484 markets active 4h ago coverage 1120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,089 (+5%) realized +$4,390 · open +$699
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%240W / 225L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,003
14 days−$62
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1,821
politics 18% +$4,540
other 13% −$61
economics 6% −$234
crypto 2% +$1,165
tech 1% +$507
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% +$131
sports 0% −$34
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +19.5%
≤30d 15 -25.7% -32.8% 53% 47% -10.3%
≤90d 58 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 33% -7.6%
all 465 +5.0% -5.0% 52% 41% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -6.4%
10% -14.1% 32% -15.3%
15% -22.4% 24% -23.5%
20% -30.0% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$128 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1120d coverage
Net worth$7,910
Realized+$4,390
Unrealized+$699
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses240 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)465 / 484
History coverage1120d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 94¢ $2,087 $2,805 +$718 (+34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $1,085 $1,358 +$273 (+25%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $840 $875 +$35 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 80¢ 94¢ $454 $533 +$79 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 12¢ 12¢ $474 $500 +$26 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $400 $500 +$100 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 48¢ $282 $311 +$29 (+10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $290 $245 −$45 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $188 $191 +$3 (+1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 57¢ 84¢ $121 $177 +$57 (+47%)
UK Recession in 2026? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $250 $152 −$98 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $292 $135 −$157 (-54%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $60 $44 −$16 (-27%)
Japan recession in 2026? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $59 $33 −$26 (-44%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $55 $16 −$38 (-70%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 30¢ 28¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $58 $11 −$46 (-80%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $200 $7 −$193 (-96%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $610 +$575 +94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$27 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,415 +$401 +17%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $371 −$371 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $937 −$675 -72%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $135 −$135 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $149 −$149 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,105 +$280 +25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $740 +$260 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $583 +$457 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $881 +$83 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $491 −$491 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $105 +$30 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $652 +$98 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,874 +$126 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $196 −$196 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? May 12 $290 −$61 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,820 +$1,180 +65%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $435 +$10 +2%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $425 +$45 +11%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $1,926 +$574 +30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $55 +$945 +1718%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $394 −$3 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $1,202 +$170 +14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Apr 30 $117 −$117 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31? Apr 29 $348 −$348 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
US bank failure by April 30? Apr 27 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $264 −$264 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $272 −$272 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 16 $43 −$43 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $895 −$305 -34%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $91 −$7 -7%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $181 +$8 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $135 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 09 $320 −$29 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 09 $597 +$244 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $350 −$350 -100%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 09 $65 −$65 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 09 $385 −$125 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $37 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $47 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $20 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 7h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 30¢ $16 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $122 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $33 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,185 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $400 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $100 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $89 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $210 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $18 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $97 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $360 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $13 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $47 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $74 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $142 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,909.96 · official $7,909.96 (match) · 2639 history records