Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcb0e…e64b sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,932 (-59%) realized −$3,909 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$4,138
sports 10% +$62
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 27% -68.9%
≤30d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 27% -68.9%
≤90d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 27% -68.9%
all 11 -21.9% -29.3% 55% 27% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 27% -68.9%
10% -36.1% 18% -71.9%
15% -42.3% 18% -74.6%
20% -47.9% 0% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$848 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized−$3,909
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Javier Reyes 68¢ 68¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) Daniil Donchenko 82¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 66¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Tahir Abdullayev 47¢ 46¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Bekzat Almakhan 40¢ 40¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Eric Nolan 39¢ 38¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 61¢ 44¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-27%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 26 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $200 +$91 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $200 −$199 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $200 +$85 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 −$495 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $999 −$289 -29%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $1,000 −$393 -39%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $2,925 −$2,864 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 39¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 82¢ $50 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 68¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 40¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 47¢ $50 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $12 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 4d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $200 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $200 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $500 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $710 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $606 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $425 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $999 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1,000 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2,500 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.15 · official $729.15 (match) · 28 history records