Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcb0e…70a1 crypto 1751 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$455 (+4%) realized −$1,683 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate79%1651W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,812
7 days−$1,800
14 days−$1,771
30 days−$1,733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 846 -39.4% -45.2% 57% 6% -41.0%
≤30d 1894 -17.0% -24.9% 77% 11% -23.0%
≤90d 2098 -14.9% -23.0% 79% 11% -21.4%
all 2098 -14.9% -23.0% 79% 11% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 11% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 5% -28.9%
15% -37.1% 2% -35.8%
20% -43.3% 1% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,683
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1651 / 447
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2098 / 1751
History coverage36d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.00 · official $12.00 (match) · 3500 history records