trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 57% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 62% | 12% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 62% | 12% | -8.0% |
| all | 27 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 70% | 7% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.2% | 7% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -15.2% | 4% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -23.4% | 0% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -30.9% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 90¢ | 89¢ | $55 | $54 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $54 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 23 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 21 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $47 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 06 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $97 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 30 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $3 | $0 | +19% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $6 | +$2 | +26% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $43 | +$2 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 20 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 17 | $12 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 20 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? | Mar 17 | $11 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |