Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb0b…bc63 crypto 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (359 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized +$137 · open −$177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%124W / 16L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day359.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$115
other 21% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (359 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 12% -7.4%
≤30d 140 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 12% -7.4%
≤90d 140 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 12% -7.4%
all 140 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 12% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover359.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 12% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 9% -16.3%
15% -23.7% 7% -24.4%
20% -31.2% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses124 / 16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day359.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 53¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 37¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 33m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $9.90 · 497 history records