Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb06…7e16 world 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$3
other 30% −$6
politics 17% −$4
sports 9% +$1
economics 6% +$1
crypto 3% −$19
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -6.7% -15.5% 28% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 77 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 1% -10.0%
all 98 -2.5% -11.8% 27% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 72
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage348d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $211 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $111 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $142 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $184 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $65 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $118 −$4 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $55 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $15 −$1 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $124 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $70 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $62 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $350 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $62 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $199 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $62 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $132 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $136 −$6 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $78 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $57 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $57 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $57 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $58 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $66 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $65 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $59 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $55 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $24 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $6 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $12 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $6 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records