Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb05…8b7e sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$138 (-9%) realized −$180 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$163
other 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 25% -31.7%
≤30d 9 -37.5% -43.4% 33% 33% -12.7%
≤90d 68 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 40% -21.1%
all 68 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 40% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 40% -21.1%
10% -32.7% 32% -28.6%
15% -39.2% 26% -35.5%
20% -45.1% 15% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 1.2662446404201755% → late -36.691094116543745% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage80d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Delhi Capitals 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Kolkata Knight Riders 91¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Sunrisers Hyderabad 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Mumbai Indians 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Mumbai Indians 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Gujarat Titans 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Mumbai Indians 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Lucknow Super Giants 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Bangladesh 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Royal Challengers Bengaluru 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Punjab Kings 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Kolkata Knight Riders 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Delhi Capitals 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Gujarat Titans 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Kolkata Knight Riders 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +96%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $30 +$28 +93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $61 +$44 +73%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $30 +$8 +26%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $6 +$5 +80%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $8 −$3 -37%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 20 $12 −$2 -16%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $24 −$15 -61%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $12 +$1 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $3 +$3 +98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 -44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $142 −$66 -46%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $228 −$171 -75%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $86 +$21 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 08 $9 −$4 -43%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $50 +$7 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $186 −$9 -5%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $10 +$22 +218%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $50 +$12 +25%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $30 +$22 +73%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $92 +$38 +41%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $77 +$37 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$9 -90%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $2 $0 +9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$1 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 46h
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 34¢ $20 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $30 19d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 61¢ $20 21d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $59 22d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 51¢ $30 22d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 100¢ $105 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 57¢ $61 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 49¢ $10 45d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Punjab Kings 16¢ $1 47d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Delhi Capitals 5¢ $6 48d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Rajasthan Royals 64¢ $38 50d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Rajasthan Royals 50¢ $30 50d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 24¢ $11 50d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 13¢ $6 50d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 11¢ $5 52d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Lucknow Super Giants 19¢ $3 53d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 61¢ $16 53d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 19¢ $5 53d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 5¢ $1 54d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 17¢ $2 54d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 16¢ $2 54d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 22¢ $12 54d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 18¢ $10 54d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians BUY Gujarat Titans 18¢ $2 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.37 · official $13.37 (match) · 177 history records