Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb05…accb sports 429 markets active 18h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-4%) realized −$157 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate54%227W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$9
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$152
world 27% −$173
other 22% −$165
weather 8% −$45
politics 4% +$5
finance 4% +$15
tech 2% −$5
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 9% -17.8%
≤30d 88 -4.0% -13.2% 58% 18% -14.2%
≤90d 336 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 17% -20.3%
all 423 -4.9% -14.0% 54% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 22% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 14% -20.7%
15% -29.7% 10% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses227 / 196
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)423 / 429
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $63 $52 −$10 (-17%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $45 −$4 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $36 −$11 (-24%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $31 −$25 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -89%
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -87%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliament Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on I Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -13%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 17h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No $0 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 6d
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 71¢ $1 6d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $1 6d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? SELL No 45¢ $1 6d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.75 · official $270.75 (match) · 2885 history records