Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CB 0xcb03…fbde sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$28 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$48
sports 49% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 53% -7.7%
≤30d 30 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 53% -7.7%
≤90d 30 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 53% -7.7%
all 30 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 53% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 53% -7.7%
10% -6.6% 53% -16.5%
15% -15.7% 47% -24.6%
20% -23.9% 40% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)30 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 86¢ 86¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 62¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 +$54 +118%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$36 +118%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$16 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$102 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $274 +$8 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$31 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $223 −$213 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $115 +$35 +30%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $100 −$9 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 +$55 +122%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $170 +$71 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $136 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $67 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $46 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $55 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $10 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $46 11h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $30 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 28h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $102 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $274 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.65 · official $419.65 (match) · 72 history records