Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

CB 0xcb02…ca1c other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,653 (-14%) realized −$1,412 · open −$241

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$609per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,290

7 days−$1,234

14 days−$1,234

30 days−$1,038

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-23.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-33.5%	-39.8%	38%	38%	-37.9%
≤30d	11	-17.7%	-25.5%	55%	45%	-26.4%
≤90d	13	-12.9%	-21.2%	54%	46%	-22.2%
all	18	-15.3%	-23.3%	56%	33%	-21.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.3%	33%	-21.7%
10%	-30.7%	28%	-29.2%
15%	-37.4%	22%	-36.0%
20%	-43.5%	17%	-42.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,045) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -1% → late -29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$173 vs −$403 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$789

Realized−$1,412

Unrealized−$241

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage149d

Avg bet$609

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	85¢	82¢	$699	$679	−$21 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	15¢	5¢	$330	$110	−$220 (-67%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$565	+$137	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$388	+$177	+46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$1,045	−$208	-20%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$449	−$441	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$325	−$322	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$634	−$632	-100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$328	+$271	+82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$217	−$215	-99%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	May 31	$1,386	+$62	+4%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	May 31	$22	+$3	+12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 31	$229	+$131	+57%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 15	$562	−$548	-98%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	Apr 14	$520	+$659	+127%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	Feb 05	$830	−$830	-100%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside	Feb 02	$1,250	+$124	+10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$100	−$31	-31%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 28	$1,200	+$84	+7%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 26	$1,100	+$82	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$703	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$565	8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$565	8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$388	12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$379	13h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	42¢	$449	32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$458	32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$325	35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$634	40h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$599	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$328	2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	60¢	$217	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,045	5d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	SELL Yes	100¢	$906	16d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	SELL Yes	34¢	$25	16d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	95¢	$196	16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY No	63¢	$229	17d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	31¢	$17	18d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	18d
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	19d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	49¢	$562	32d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	SELL Yes	91¢	$542	32d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	92¢	$939	36d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i	BUY Yes	92¢	$251	36d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	SELL $80k	60¢	$1,180	63d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$330	87d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$120	108d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$202	108d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	27¢	$2	108d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	BUY $80k	26¢	$196	108d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.89 · official $788.89 (match) · 70 history records