Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CB 0xcb02…c292 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,377 (+16%) realized +$4,391 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%65W / 36L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$898
14 days+$4,149
30 days+$4,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$3,924
other 13% +$239
crypto 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +7.1% -3.1% 65% 60% +8.3%
≤30d 101 +8.6% -1.8% 64% 60% +5.1%
≤90d 101 +8.6% -1.8% 64% 60% +5.1%
all 101 +8.6% -1.8% 64% 60% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 60% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 51% -4.9%
15% -19.8% 38% -14.1%
20% -27.6% 31% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$136 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized+$4,391
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses65 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage13d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 85¢ 84¢ $1,022 $1,008 −$14 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner T1 84¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 −$47 -79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44 −$31 -71%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $104 −$49 -46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$101 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $113 +$90 +79%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $157 +$34 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$101 +64%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $136 −$81 -60%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 +$28 +151%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $155 +$150 +97%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $328 +$172 +52%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 +$27 +117%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $313 +$203 +65%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $85 +$26 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $274 +$226 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $126 +$44 +35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $320 +$180 +56%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $145 +$22 +15%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $24 +$26 +108%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $55 +$2 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $285 +$45 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $110 +$90 +82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $317 +$189 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$17 +125%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $150 +$50 +33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $439 +$314 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 +$78 +63%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $130 +$120 +92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $282 +$203 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $607 +$921 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $590 −$295 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $277 +$172 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $127 −$71 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $559 +$447 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 9¢ $12 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $71 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 41¢ $59 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $56 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $17 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $72 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 21¢ $21 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $2 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $2 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $1 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $2 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $3 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $10 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $45 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $2 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $2 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $1 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 10h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $420 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.55 · official $1,012.55 (match) · 640 history records