Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CB 0xcb02…b891 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-34%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +38.7%
≤30d 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +38.7%
≤90d 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +38.7%
all 6 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% +38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 50% +38.7%
10% -29.6% 33% +25.4%
15% -36.4% 33% +13.3%
20% -42.7% 33% +2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$14 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$102 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records