Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb01…89ad other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3 (+5%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$2
sports 28% +$7
crypto 5% −$3
finance 3% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 31% -29.1%
≤30d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 31% -29.1%
≤90d 36 -20.4% -28.0% 36% 31% -29.1%
all 43 -9.2% -17.8% 44% 40% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -8.1%
10% -25.7% 37% -16.9%
15% -32.9% 37% -24.9%
20% -39.5% 30% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $3 $0 -3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $4 +$2 +58%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $1 +$1 +96%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $2 +$2 +78%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $4 +$3 +63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.07 · official $6.08 (match) · 78 history records