Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcb01…ec16 politics 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 40% −$14
sports 7% +$18
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×13.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage126d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $417 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $582 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 17 $441 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $405 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $194 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 7h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 10h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 15h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 33h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 33h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $203 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $203 25d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 25d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records