Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CB 0xcb01…7dfb sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$15,505 (+20%) realized +$15,345 · open +$1,813
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate63%78W / 45L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day878.8pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$60,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,795
7 days+$15,345
14 days+$15,345
30 days+$15,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$13,183
other 21% +$3,865
politics 2% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -15.1% -23.2% 63% 20% +10.5%
≤30d 123 -15.1% -23.2% 63% 20% +10.5%
≤90d 123 -15.1% -23.2% 63% 20% +10.5%
all 123 -15.1% -23.2% 63% 20% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover878.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 20% +10.5%
10% -30.5% 8% -0.1%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 6% -9.7%
20% -43.4% 6% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$645) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27.060322267054215% → late -3.2903431858978998% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$69 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.92 per $1 lost it wins $5.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$60,535
Realized+$15,345
Unrealized+$1,813
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses78 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions44
Markets (closed)123 / 151
History coverage4d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day878.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $22,092 $24,094 +$2,002 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $15,177 $16,745 +$1,568 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 61¢ $5,501 $3,769 −$1,732 (-31%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 17¢ 40¢ $894 $2,104 +$1,210 (+135%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $1,879 $2,090 +$211 (+11%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,638 $1,669 +$32 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 39¢ $140 $1,393 +$1,253 (+893%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 95¢ 94¢ $912 $907 −$5 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 86¢ 100¢ $731 $848 +$117 (+16%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 19¢ 60¢ $200 $636 +$436 (+218%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $555 $631 +$76 (+14%)
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 96¢ 91¢ $519 $490 −$29 (-6%)
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 83¢ 98¢ $399 $471 +$72 (+18%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty New York Liberty 90¢ 98¢ $432 $468 +$36 (+8%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 93¢ 100¢ $382 $411 +$28 (+7%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 94¢ 96¢ $362 $369 +$7 (+2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ 100¢ $346 $360 +$14 (+4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 76¢ 100¢ $274 $358 +$85 (+31%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 66¢ 84¢ $273 $348 +$75 (+28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $324 $303 −$21 (-6%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 36¢ 62¢ $163 $282 +$119 (+73%)
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 97¢ 99¢ $205 $209 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $128 $179 +$51 (+39%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $219 $130 −$89 (-41%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $91 $114 +$23 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $447 +$33 +7%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $858 +$127 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $353 +$7 +2%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $911 +$992 +109%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,090 +$209 +19%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $346 +$14 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,538 +$62 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $247 −$27 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $425 +$75 +18%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $657 +$95 +14%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $114 +$6 +5%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $197 +$3 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $33 +$147 +442%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,294 +$121 +9%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $935 +$65 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $158 +$200 +127%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,907 −$108 -6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $3,170 +$190 +6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $199 +$59 +30%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,004 +$6 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $192 +$158 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $750 +$50 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $117 +$3 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $219 +$21 +10%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,797 −$10 -0%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $189 +$11 +6%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $36 +$4 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $424 +$56 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,336 +$344 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $327 +$33 +10%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $274 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,909 −$709 -14%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $278 +$2 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $348 +$42 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1,399 +$41 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $350 +$10 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 1m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 2m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $20 8m
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $10 11m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 76¢ $92 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 76¢ $92 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 76¢ $92 16m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 1¢ $1 18m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 1¢ $1 18m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 1¢ $1 18m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 95¢ $114 19m
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 97¢ $10 22m
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 97¢ $48 23m
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 94¢ $5 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,535.33 · official $60,535.33 (match) · 3500 history records