Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaff…db64
other · 346 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$117 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$65
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses160 / 182
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)342 / 346
History coverage222d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 4 History 342 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$3
14 days−$38
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 62¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 42¢ 33¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: China PR (-1.5) China PR 33¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? No 51¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner TYLOO 55¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) Chengdu Rongcheng FC 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 40¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs TYLOO 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 64¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: China PR (-2.5) China PR 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? No 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$14 -45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $43 +$38 +89%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: China PR (-2.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $11 +$5 +50%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$26 -77%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$14 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $13 +$8 +65%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) May 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? May 18 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $80 +$12 +14%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$3 +27%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner May 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $50 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 01 $67 +$18 +27%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $61 +$6 +10%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 25 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $48 +$12 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 27? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27? Apr 12 $85 −$66 -77%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Kosovo end in a draw? Mar 27 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26? Mar 27 $30 +$13 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 26? Mar 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 25? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on March 25? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 25? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 25? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$92
sports 35% −$7
weather 8% −$64
world 7% +$52
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $17 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $30 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 20h
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 32¢ $6 7d
Spread: China PR (-2.5) BUY China PR 14¢ $1 7d
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 34¢ $3 7d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $39 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $6 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 13d
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) BUY Chengdu Rongcheng FC 46¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $8 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No $1 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $43 18d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 42¢ $20 18d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 19d
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 47¢ $11 19d
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 43¢ $20 19d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 20d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 20d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 23d
Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) BUY Zhejiang Zhiye FC 72¢ $20 23d
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 61¢ $30 23d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.3% -44.2% 25% 25% -12.3%
≤30d 22 -15.5% -23.5% 55% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 136 -33.4% -39.7% 34% 28% -21.7%
all 342 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 44% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -11.8%
10% -16.8% 42% -20.2%
15% -24.8% 40% -27.9%
20% -32.2% 34% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.42 · official $65.42 (match) · 747 history records