Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcaf9…c81b sports 309 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,252 (+6%) realized +$3,248 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%125W / 175L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$825est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$200
14 days−$686
30 days+$7,071
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$5,590
other 12% −$1,608
crypto 7% −$943
tech 1% −$64
world 1% −$109
politics 0% −$100
culture 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 26% -18.5%
≤30d 55 -3.1% -12.3% 29% 29% +95.0%
≤90d 205 -1.7% -11.1% 37% 34% +1.5%
all 300 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 38% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 38% -3.6%
10% -20.0% 35% -12.8%
15% -27.7% 32% -21.2%
20% -34.8% 29% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$146 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$3,248
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses125 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$825
Open positions6
Markets (closed)300 / 309
History coverage108d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $50 $95 +$45 (+90%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $710 +$611 +86%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $20 +$56 +276%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $20 −$18 -88%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 24 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $21 +$161 +785%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$450 +439%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,025 +$5,626 +549%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $203 +$219 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$352 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $113 −$110 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 24¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 16¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 19¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $710 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.88 · official $503.88 (match) · 725 history records