Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaf6…ac4e
sports · 28 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,015
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses21 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage120d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Clutchain 98¢ 100¢ $995 $1,012 +$17 (+2%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Germany 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Sweden 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jovic $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs T1 85¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Coppin State Eagles vs. North Carolina Central Eagles North Carolina Central Eagles 85¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $993 +$1 +0%
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Tarleton State Texans Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Nets vs. Thunder Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Ball State Cardinals vs. Ohio Bobcats Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Women's Semifinals - Canada vs. Switzerland Feb 18 $1 $0 +3%
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Florida Gators Feb 18 $100 $0 +0%
Akron Zips vs. Western Michigan Broncos Feb 18 $200 $0 +0%
Women's Semifinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 16 $1 $0 +3%
Oeiras 2: Gabriela Knutson vs Ayana Akli Feb 16 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Feb 16 $1 $0 +8%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers Feb 16 $100 $0 +0%
San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros Feb 16 $200 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. California-San Diego Tritons Feb 15 $300 +$4 +2%
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines Feb 15 $1 $0 +8%
Air Force Falcons vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 143.5 Feb 15 $5 $0 +1%
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Central Michigan Chippewas: O/U 146.5 Feb 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs Feb 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-2.5) Feb 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Spread: Lindenwood Lions (-1.5) Feb 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Coppin State Eagles vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$26
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 99¢ $495 1h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 98¢ $500 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $1 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $43 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $500 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $250 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 100¢ $200 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 7h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Sweden 98¢ $1 7h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $1 7h
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Tarleton State Texans BUY Tarleton State Texans 97¢ $1 114d
Akron Zips vs. Western Michigan Broncos BUY Akron Zips 100¢ $100 116d
Akron Zips vs. Western Michigan Broncos BUY Akron Zips 100¢ $100 116d
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Florida Gators BUY Florida Gators 100¢ $100 116d
Ball State Cardinals vs. Ohio Bobcats BUY Ohio Bobcats 99¢ $1 116d
Women's Semifinals - Canada vs. Switzerland BUY Canada 98¢ $1 117d
Women's Semifinals - USA vs. Sweden BUY USA 97¢ $1 117d
Oeiras 2: Gabriela Knutson vs Ayana Akli BUY Akli 97¢ $1 117d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group BUY MOUZ NXT 93¢ $1 117d
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) BUY Jovic $1 118d
Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers BUY Belmont Bruins 100¢ $100 118d
San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros BUY San Francisco Dons 100¢ $200 118d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-22? BUY No 96¢ $1 119d
Nets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 92¢ $1 119d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY T1 85¢ $1 119d
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. California-San Diego Tritons BUY California-San Diego Tritons 99¢ $200 119d
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. California-San Diego Tritons BUY California-San Diego Tritons 98¢ $100 119d
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs BUY Alabama A&M Bulldogs 95¢ $50 119d
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Central Michigan Chippewas: O/U 146.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 119d
Air Force Falcons vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 143.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 24 -10.0% -18.6% 88% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -9.2%
10% -26.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -33.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.95 · official $1,014.95 (match) · 57 history records