Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaf5…41ab
weather · 1235 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$567 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$544 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$566
Realized+$544
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses510 / 639
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions86
Markets (closed)1149 / 1235
History coverage67d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 86 History 1149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$35
14 days+$106
30 days+$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+157%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 14¢ 36¢ $8 $19 +$12 (+154%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 38¢ 81¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+114%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+105%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+92%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 57¢ $9 $14 +$6 (+64%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 62¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+71%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 47¢ 92¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+97%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 74¢ 97¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+31%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? No 57¢ 74¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 57¢ 64¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 86¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 91¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 83¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 +$3 +34%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$39 +487%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -40%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$18 +199%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$16 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$10 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$16 +202%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$19 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$14 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$13 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$51 +626%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 33% +$591
sports 25% −$238
other 15% −$128
world 13% +$104
politics 9% +$242
tech 2% −$7
finance 1% −$45
crypto 0% +$33
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA BUY No 66¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $11 31m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA BUY No 66¢ $6 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 4h
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 4h
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 80¢ $7 4h
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 4h
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 1¢ $0 5h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 6h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 6h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 73¢ $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 6h
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's SELL No 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +4.5% -5.4% 39% 32% -11.2%
≤30d 814 +12.8% +2.0% 43% 34% -3.2%
≤90d 1149 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 36% -3.4%
all 1149 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 36% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 36% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 28% -12.6%
15% -16.5% 22% -21.1%
20% -24.7% 17% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.67 · official $565.98 (match) · 3500 history records