Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcaf1…a57b
crypto · 1365 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$418 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$415 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses485 / 878
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1363 / 1365
History coverage103d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 1363 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) San Diego Padres 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $4 +$13 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +240%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$366
sports 28% +$31
other 4% −$35
weather 2% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 18¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 25¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -18.8% -26.5% 31% 31% -15.1%
≤30d 104 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 31% -20.8%
≤90d 1230 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 34% -16.0%
all 1363 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 34% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 34% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 32% -23.9%
15% -31.9% 30% -31.2%
20% -38.6% 27% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 3500 history records