Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaf0…5c88 weather 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%101W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% −$6
crypto 23% +$1
other 20% −$10
politics 14% −$7
sports 5% −$13
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% −$3
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 67 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 157 -3.2% -12.4% 39% 0% -10.0%
all 218 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses101 / 117
Open positions4
Markets (closed)218 / 222
History coverage555d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 4? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jot Thiara win the CA-01 Special Election? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on June 2? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Estêvão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadia May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? May 31 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on May 30? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 29? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 29? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 26m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $18 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $2 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Jot Thiara win the CA-01 Special Election? SELL No 100¢ $19 22d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 22d
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? SELL No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June SELL No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.13 · official $84.13 (match) · 541 history records