Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xcaeb…a226 crypto 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,340 (-22%) realized −$12,338 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%213W / 121L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,007
7 days−$1,751
14 days−$3,813
30 days−$6,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$7,149
sports 11% −$1,703
other 1% −$566
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -16.5% -24.4% 64% 38% -28.0%
≤30d 92 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 45% -38.1%
≤90d 334 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 49% -24.8%
all 334 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 49% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 49% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 36% -32.0%
15% -25.7% 25% -38.6%
20% -32.9% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$158 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12,338
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses213 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)334 / 336
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $704 +$262 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $157 +$58 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $704 +$40 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $643 +$25 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$32 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $115 −$107 -93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $714 +$607 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $287 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $454 −$454 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 15 $704 −$704 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$17 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $465 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $166 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $290 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $399 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$5 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $705 −$684 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $444 −$444 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $295 −$295 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $966 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $704 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $119 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $215 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 73¢ $355 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 73¢ $389 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $704 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $121 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $668 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.11 (match) · 3500 history records