Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcaeb…92f6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$229 (+5%) realized −$113 · open +$342
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$14
world 38% −$13
other 12% +$357
economics 5% −$10
politics 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 29% 14% -10.7%
≤30d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 29% 14% -10.7%
≤90d 7 +9.6% -0.8% 29% 14% -10.7%
all 7 +9.6% -0.8% 29% 14% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 14% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 14% -19.3%
15% -19.0% 14% -27.1%
20% -26.9% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,299
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$342
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 16¢ 25¢ $394 $626 +$233 (+59%)
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 19¢ 35¢ $176 $321 +$145 (+83%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 45¢ 46¢ $226 $228 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs HULIGANI 25¢ 24¢ $125 $118 −$8 (-6%)
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage AGELITE 26¢ 11¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Yes 73¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $419 −$23 -5%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 26 $174 −$8 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $1,386 +$9 +1%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $228 −$10 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $115 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 25¢ $128 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 46¢ $113 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $117 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 41¢ $100 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $215 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $103 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $103 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $215 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 26¢ $7 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $46 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $45 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 26¢ $6 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 26¢ $117 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 25¢ $130 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 25¢ $130 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 25¢ $129 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 25¢ $130 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 21¢ $52 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 25¢ $130 3h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL AGELITE 22¢ $54 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,298.93 · official $1,298.93 (match) · 116 history records