Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae9…bcc3 other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$19
14 days−$41
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$18
other 26% −$24
sports 21% −$13
world 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$6
finance 5% −$3
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$7
tech 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 64 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.2% 16% 0% -10.0%
all 152 -0.7% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 123
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage110d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 20 $64 $0 +1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $165 −$3 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $111 −$3 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 −$5 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $249 −$3 -1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$5 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $412 −$3 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $809 −$2 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $68 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $199 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 −$3 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $5 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $107 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 97¢ $65 2h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $64 10h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $54 10h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $55 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 20h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 20h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 27h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $46 28h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $46 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 41h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $15 41h
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $15 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $49 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $61 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $64 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 95¢ $14 3d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.34 · official $49.34 (match) · 554 history records