Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcae6…ed9a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$125 (+2%) realized +$121 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$98
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$147
world 24% $0
other 23% −$20
politics 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -23.9% -31.1% 20% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 17 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 0% -8.0%
all 17 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 0% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -8.0%
10% -22.4% 0% -16.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -24.9%
20% -36.8% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$533) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage75d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $71 −$20 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 26 $217 −$1 -0%
Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-1.5) May 25 $499 +$48 +10%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? May 23 $499 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) May 23 $617 +$38 +6%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 22 $616 $0 +0%
Spread: FC København (-2.5) May 22 $570 +$48 +8%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $567 −$1 -0%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $526 +$44 +8%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 20 $533 −$6 -1%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) May 20 $497 +$36 +7%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $500 −$3 -1%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $425 +$10 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $427 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 10 $308 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 1h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $30 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $28 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $40 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $38 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $24 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $26 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $36 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $34 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $40 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $48 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.30 · official $90.30 (match) · 74 history records