Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcae4…e479 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,311 (-2%) realized −$9,868 · open −$443
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 65L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,916per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2,371est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,105
7 days−$10,317
14 days−$10,746
30 days−$8,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,965
other 2% −$6,916
crypto 1% −$2,690
weather 0% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -30.9% -37.5% 6% 6% -54.3%
≤30d 58 -12.0% -20.4% 16% 16% -37.5%
≤90d 81 -5.5% -14.5% 26% 26% -10.1%
all 97 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 33% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 25% -18.7%
15% -29.2% 22% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 16% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$9,984) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5,714 vs −$2,986 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$9,868
Unrealized−$443
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,371
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage108d
Avg bet$5,916
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $717 $274 −$443 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $634 −$191 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$100 -47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,911 −$3,826 -78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,608 +$313 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $835 −$151 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$200 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,040 −$2,792 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,049 −$2,847 -70%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $139 −$73 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $43 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $114 −$16 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$6 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $99 −$20 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $117 −$15 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $67 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $98 −$13 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $75 −$22 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $149 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $125 +$191 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $185 −$100 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $211 +$740 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $168 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $315 +$323 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $210 −$199 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $106 +$172 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $106 +$51 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $179 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $734 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,084 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4,911 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,921 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,608 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $77 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $88 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $482 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $454 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $64 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $317 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $2,248 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.97 · official $273.97 (match) · 286 history records