Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcae1…3f6f
crypto · 1384 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$187 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1004 / 380
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1384 / 1384
History coverage608d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$21
14 days−$42
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% −$3
crypto 48% −$122
economics 2% −$59
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 40% -10.7%
≤30d 1368 -3.1% -12.4% 73% 51% -12.0%
≤90d 1368 -3.1% -12.4% 73% 51% -12.0%
all 1384 -3.3% -12.5% 73% 51% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 51% -11.4%
10% -20.9% 8% -19.8%
15% -28.5% 1% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.46 · official $42.46 (match) · 2748 history records