Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcadf…a086 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5
other 25% $0
politics 21% $0
finance 6% +$3
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 25% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 11 +1.2% -8.5% 36% 0% -8.0%
all 31 +0.4% -9.2% 23% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage290d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $51 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $51 +$5 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $33 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $58 +$3 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $34 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $47 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $41 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $12 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $13 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $38 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $1 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $29 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $17 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $49 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $33 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $11 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $47.38 (match) · 132 history records