Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcade…9286
crypto · 10 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$419 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$415 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$496
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$415
14 days−$415
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 54¢ 56¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $127 −$125 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $211 −$150 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$415
world 46% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.5% -59.8% 25% 25% -83.6%
≤30d 8 -55.5% -59.8% 25% 25% -83.6%
≤90d 8 -55.5% -59.8% 25% 25% -83.6%
all 8 -55.5% -59.8% 25% 25% -83.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.8% 25% -83.6%
10% -63.6% 25% -85.2%
15% -67.1% 25% -86.6%
20% -70.4% 25% -87.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.62 · official $495.62 (match) · 20 history records