Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcade…1ff6 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$46 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$995
7 days+$140
14 days+$624
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$561
crypto 10% −$321
sports 0% −$6
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -43.7% -49.1% 31% 28% -6.3%
≤30d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 29% -5.5%
≤90d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 29% -5.5%
all 80 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 29% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 29% -5.5%
10% -31.2% 28% -14.5%
15% -37.9% 28% -22.8%
20% -43.9% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$48 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage26d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $560 $572 +$12 (+2%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $209 +$303 +145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $499 +$345 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $259 −$258 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $184 +$76 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $606 +$330 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $415 +$198 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $217 −$214 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$92 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $109 +$111 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$169 +159%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 +$32 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $52 +$22 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $62 −$53 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $208 +$464 +223%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -85%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $120 +$137 +114%
Will SC Sagamihara win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$74 +74%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $78 −$76 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $565 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $209 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $195 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $259 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $260 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $184 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $937 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $606 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $613 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $58 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $96 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.74 · official $571.74 (match) · 144 history records