Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcadd…595c other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23,638 (-45%) realized −$23,632 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate66%71W / 37L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$23,065
other 11% −$437
culture 7% −$220
world 5% +$86
crypto 2% +$48
tech 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 108 -9.6% -18.2% 66% 19% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 19% -51.1%
10% -26.0% 9% -55.8%
15% -33.2% 6% -60.1%
20% -39.7% 4% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$662 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$23,632
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses71 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage690d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $132 $126 −$6 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? Jan 01 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $62 −$4 -7%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files? Jan 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $213 −$202 -95%
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $172 −$7 -4%
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? Jan 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Jan 01 $79 +$12 +15%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $98 +$14 +14%
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $118 +$2 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Jan 01 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $203 +$13 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files Dec 23 $167 −$154 -92%
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $11 +$5 +50%
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $61 +$4 +7%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 12 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $307 +$16 +5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 31 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? Oct 31 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 25 $64 +$19 +30%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jun 25 $511 −$396 -78%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jun 25 $978 −$231 -24%
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Cit Jun 25 $2,269 −$2,225 -98%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +15%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $91 +$13 +14%
Will Chuck Schumer be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $151 +$14 +9%
Will Quinten Tarantino be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Bernie Sanders be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $52 +$7 +13%
Will Rachel Maddow be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 17 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Michael Jackson be named in Epstein files? Mar 01 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Trump and Elon say "Billion" 10 or more times during their Feb 18 Feb 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Trump and Elon say "NATO" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 21 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Trump and Elon say "fentanyl" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 21 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Trump and Elon say "Paper Straw" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 21 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Elon say "China" 10 or more times during their Feb 18 i Feb 21 $167 +$5 +3%
Will Trump and Elon say "COVID" during their Feb 18 interview? Feb 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $88 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $807 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $185 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $125 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $162 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $291 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $109 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $509 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $182 20d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $15 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $1 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $5 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $7 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $8 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $7 175d
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $7 175d
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $84 175d
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 93¢ $46 177d
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 88¢ $80 179d
Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files? BUY No 88¢ $18 179d
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? SELL No $2 183d
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? SELL No $1 183d
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files? SELL No $8 183d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files SELL No $3 183d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files SELL No $2 183d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files SELL No $8 183d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files SELL No 10¢ $1 183d
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files? SELL No 85¢ $14 183d
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files? SELL No 85¢ $4 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.63 · official $125.63 (match) · 1331 history records