Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xcad8…2e1a crypto 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%158W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$2
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$7
politics 9% +$5
other 3% +$2
finance 2% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 162 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 162 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.0%
all 162 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses158 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)162 / 173
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 21h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.91 · official $208.57 (match) · 332 history records