Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CA 0xcad7…7460 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$74 (+20%) realized +$74 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR78%break-even

Win rate89%8W / 1L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +78%

net ROI/market (all)+11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+23.0%	+11.3%	89%	78%	+9.3%
≤30d	9	+23.0%	+11.3%	89%	78%	+9.3%
≤90d	9	+23.0%	+11.3%	89%	78%	+9.3%
all	9	+23.0%	+11.3%	89%	78%	+9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.3%	78%	+9.3%
10%	+0.6%	44%	-1.1%
15%	-9.1%	33%	-10.7%
20%	-18.0%	33%	-19.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$74

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses8 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage6d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$31	+$21	+69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$20	−$19	-95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$46	+$14	+32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$20	+$4	+21%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	+$9	+92%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$41	+$6	+15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$77	+$7	+9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$41	+$21	+52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$6	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$31	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	82¢	$20	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$46	3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$41	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$77	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$41	6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.69 · official $29.69 (match) · 20 history records