Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcad6…1397 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day78.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$46
other 24% +$25
sports 3% −$15
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.5% -23.6% 61% 39% -13.3%
≤30d 36 -15.5% -23.6% 61% 39% -13.3%
≤90d 36 -15.5% -23.6% 61% 39% -13.3%
all 36 -15.5% -23.6% 61% 39% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 39% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 28% -21.6%
15% -37.6% 19% -29.2%
20% -43.7% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day78.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 62¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 +$5 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -76%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $4 +$5 +113%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$13 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $33 +$15 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $1.63 (match) · 186 history records