Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xcad4…51c6
other · 62 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$20 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$60
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses30 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)47 / 62
History coverage124d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 15 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 93¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 66¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 49¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $29 +$2 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $8 +$2 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $14 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $7 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 16 $22 +$1 +5%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $32 −$15 -49%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $11 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 06 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $39 +$6 +15%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $65 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $5 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $14 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 02 $13 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Feb 25 $6 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $43 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$4
world 16% −$1
crypto 7% +$2
economics 6% $0
politics 5% +$7
finance 5% +$7
culture 4% +$2
sports 3% −$1
tech 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 19¢ $0 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $5 7d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $6 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $9 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $7 13d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $27 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $28 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $0 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $0 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $9 22d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 86¢ $11 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 17% -4.7%
≤90d 34 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 24% -7.0%
all 47 +1.1% -8.6% 64% 17% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 17% -7.4%
10% -17.3% 9% -16.2%
15% -25.3% 4% -24.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.42 · official $57.73 · 260 history records