Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcad0…9ff5 crypto 94 markets active 2d ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$201 (+6%) realized +$200 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%38W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$384
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$311
other 10% −$34
politics 6% +$359
world 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +265.8% +230.9% 100% 100% +230.9%
≤90d 3 +31.8% +19.3% 33% 33% +142.9%
all 87 +0.5% -9.0% 44% 40% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 40% -9.9%
10% -17.7% 33% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 29% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +168% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses38 / 49
Open positions7
Markets (closed)87 / 94
History coverage438d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $14 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $145 +$384 +266%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9PM ET Mar 27 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10PM ET Mar 12 $60 −$47 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7PM ET Jan 26 $53 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11PM ET Jan 13 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7PM ET Dec 08 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4AM ET Nov 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET Nov 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3AM ET Nov 13 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7PM ET Nov 12 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6PM ET Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET Nov 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8PM ET Nov 05 $3 +$6 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11PM ET Nov 04 $73 −$30 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10PM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET Nov 03 $71 +$25 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1AM ET Nov 03 $99 +$38 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12AM ET Nov 03 $92 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8PM ET Nov 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET Nov 03 $45 +$38 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 30 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8PM ET Oct 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3AM ET Oct 19 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET Oct 15 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9PM ET Oct 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 8PM ET Oct 14 $47 −$24 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3AM ET Oct 13 $52 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8PM ET Oct 13 $44 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7PM ET Oct 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Oct 11 $40 +$26 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Sep 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Sep 24 $70 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 1AM ET Sep 24 $46 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10PM ET Sep 24 $29 −$4 -13%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9PM ET Sep 24 $165 −$95 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4AM ET Sep 23 $86 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3AM ET Sep 23 $115 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1AM ET Sep 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12AM ET Sep 23 $104 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11PM ET Sep 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10PM ET Sep 23 $135 +$14 +11%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025? Sep 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9PM ET Sep 23 $55 +$24 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.82 · official $63.82 (match) · 770 history records