Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xcacf…331d sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,727 (+21%) realized +$2,319 · open −$592
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,693
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 48% +20.4%
≤30d 21 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 48% +20.4%
≤90d 21 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 48% +20.4%
all 21 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 48% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 48% +20.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 38% +8.8%
15% -17.9% 24% -1.7%
20% -26.0% 19% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$204 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,319
Unrealized−$592
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 17¢ $412 $1 −$411 (-100%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $182 $0 −$181 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $215 +$60 +28%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 25 $472 +$157 +33%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $364 −$364 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $426 −$426 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $162 +$72 +45%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $119 −$117 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $1,125 +$34 +3%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $230 +$9 +4%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $27 $0 +1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $779 +$922 +118%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $551 +$646 +117%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $477 +$81 +17%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $127 +$83 +65%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $427 +$17 +4%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $610 +$119 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $368 +$1,280 +348%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $114 +$32 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 20¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 19¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $0 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $0 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $4 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $12 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $0 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $12 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $0 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $4 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $0 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports $17 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 11¢ $29 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 11¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 11¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 11¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 11¢ $9 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 15¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 15¢ $9 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 26¢ $47 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 26¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 26¢ $48 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag SELL Beşiktaş Esports 73¢ $634 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 34¢ $6 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 34¢ $29 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $66 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $37 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $28 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 36¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $1.50 (match) · 141 history records