Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xcacd…6016 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$4
sports 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +8.0% -2.3% 21% 7% -9.5%
all 62 +8.8% -1.6% 23% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 8% -9.5%
10% -11.0% 8% -18.2%
15% -19.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -27.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×10.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage119d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $455 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $456 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $456 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $455 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $455 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $456 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $456 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $456 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $446 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $447 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $447 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $447 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 15? Apr 16 $447 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? Apr 15 $447 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 13? Apr 14 $433 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $431 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Apr 13 $425 $0 +0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $449 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $449 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $450 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $450 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $450 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $450 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $450 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $455 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $456 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $456 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $455 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $456 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $456 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.63 · official $127.41 · 159 history records