Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcacd…1742 crypto 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$1 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%85W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$183
politics 1% −$9
other 1% −$3
tech 0% −$3
sports 0% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% +12.7%
≤30d 10 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 30% -4.5%
≤90d 53 -17.6% -25.4% 42% 36% -10.7%
all 178 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 38% -15.5%
10% -31.9% 32% -23.6%
15% -38.5% 26% -31.0%
20% -44.5% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses85 / 93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Down 29¢ 18¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 17 $217 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 30 $15 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 30 $38 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 30 $27 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 30 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 30 $6 +$3 +55%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Mar 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 30 $1 $0 -26%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Mar 30 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 30 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 30 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 30 $36 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 30 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 30 $30 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 30 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Trump say "Kaitlan Collins" this week? (March 29) Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 29 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Ethanol" this week? (March 29) Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 28 $15 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $62 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $77 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $35 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $74 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $62 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.22 · official $11.70 · 557 history records