Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xcacb…951e other 13 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$137 (-27%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$138
sports 1% −$5
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.7% -28.3% 31% 23% -34.9%
≤30d 13 -20.7% -28.3% 31% 23% -34.9%
≤90d 13 -20.7% -28.3% 31% 23% -34.9%
all 13 -20.7% -28.3% 31% 23% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 23% -34.9%
10% -35.2% 15% -41.1%
15% -41.4% 8% -46.8%
20% -47.2% 0% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$5 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $155 −$148 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $110 +$5 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $14 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $77 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $80 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $48 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $54 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 96¢ $115 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $73 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $29 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 88¢ $37 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records